Analysts see clog in foreclosure pipeline improve, but more delinquencies coming
Research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch indicates what many REO brokers and agents already know â” seriously delinquent mortgages continue to take more time to enter REO status.
A commonly used metric of mortgage performance is called the “roll rate.” It measures the transition, on a percentage basis, from one delinquency bucket to another, over a period of time. BofA Merrill Lynch said the number of mortgages that transferred from the bucket of current loans to “worse” (less than 30 days late), and loans more than 30 days delinquent, are continually on the rise, according to the graph below (click to expand):

But once those loans are more than 60 days delinquent, the roll rate from foreclosure to REO/liquidation status is at the lowest level since at least 2003, as seen in the chart below:

The problem, the analysts wrote, is that loans in foreclosure are less likely to go into REO or liquidation because servicers are facing difficulties disposing of assets in their portfolios.
While monumental efforts to prevent foreclosures are under way through government intervention, mortgage modifications, workout plans and nonforeclosure home forfeitures, the clogged foreclosure pipeline is only going to get more congested. During the past three months, the analysts said 70% of loans in the 60-day delinquency bucket move to a worse delinquency bucket, while on 15% go back into an improved status.
The clog in the pipe seems to be the 90-days-plus delinquent bucket. According to the research, 85% of mortgages that are 90 days or more delinquent stay in that category, rather than roll into the foreclosure, REO or liquidation buckets.
That trend has only recently begun to improve, with slight increases in the roll rate from delinquency to REO, albeit from the recent extremely low levels, the analysts wrote.
Write to Austin Kilgore.
View full post on News | REO Insider
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